Replay · 2020
The COVID Crash
The fastest crash and the fastest recovery.
−34%
S&P drawdown
33 days
Peak to bottom
1,100
HY spread peak (bps)
2 months
NBER recession
ReconstructedThe Fear & Greed values shown are reconstructed using the same five-component model as the live FearGreedChart index, applied to historical market data — not contemporaneous readings.
Replay it month by month
—
Fear & Greed proxyreconstructed
—
Drag the slider to replay how sentiment moved.
sentiment proxy & market move together
Sentiment proxy vs S&P 500
What happened
An exogenous shock, not a build-up. There was almost no pre-condition deterioration — conditions were benign in January 2020, then a global shutdown crashed the market 34% in 33 days, the fastest ever. The recovery was equally violent: unprecedented fiscal and monetary support drove a V-shaped rebound that no leading indicator could have timed. The lesson: not every crash is preceded by warning signs.
The phases
How today compares
This crash's peak vs right now
"Then" = readings at this crash's market peak. "Now" = live from the Recession Conditions Index.